Why Is the US Tipping Off Russia on the Ukrainian Spring Offensive?

We live in a bizarre time. Ukrainian and U.S. officials continue to issue public warnings/threats of a looming Ukrainian offensive intended to push Russia out of its recently acquired territories in the Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson. I cannot recall a single historical event when a military force was being steadily pushed back and decimated and the leaders and enablers of that army publicly announced what they were going to do.

If you have not read the latest contribution from Simplicius do yourself a favor and click on this link. It is not behind a paywall and is another superb piece. With respect to the impending Ukrainian offensive Simplicius takes note of Victoria Nuland’s deep dive into the crazy pond:

The final article, which brings us fully around to the Ukrainian offensive, represents a series of headlines driven by wicked witch of Maidan Victoria Nuland’s recent statements that “U.S. has been working with Ukraine on the counter-offensive for months”.

Not only does she make the aforementioned claim:

“Even as you plan for the counteroffensive, which we have been working on with you for some 4-5 months, we are already beginning our discussions with [the] Ukrainian government and with friends in Kiev – both on the civilian side and on the military side – about Ukraine’s long-term future,” Nuland told the Kiev Security Forum via video-link from the State Department.

But she let slip the following little tidbit:

“She added that the attack will be “likely starting and moving concurrently” with events such as the NATO summit in Lithuania, scheduled for July 11.“

Which confirms our previous theories on Ukraine’s large offensive possibly coinciding with the huge NATO airforce games—billed as ‘the largest in history—beginning in June, which dovetail into the NATO summit in July.

While I cannot recall any historical precedent for an army tipping its hand before launching an attack, there are a couple of iconic moments from popular culture. First up, Babe Ruth, who allegedly pointed to center field during the 1932 World Series with the Cubs and proceeded to blast a home run.

Maybe Ukraine thinks it is Billy Jack (a karate stud portrayed by Tom Laughlin in a popular film 50 years ago). When Billy takes off his boots and socks, watch out:

Alas, even the talented Billy Jack ended up taking a beating.

Maybe the Ukrainians are channeling a young Geraldo Rivera, who kept 30 million viewers spellbound for two hours as he promised to unveil the hidden treasures from Al Capone’s “secret” vault. When his crew finally punched through the concrete wall all they found was dirt and debris. All that build-up for nothing.

I apologize for ridiculing the long-promised Ukrainian offensive. Although the messaging from Zelensky and the likes of Nuland is pure buffoonery, the reality of what Ukraine may attempt is horrifying because of the number of Ukrainian soldiers who are being sent into a maelstrom of slaughter. Human sacrifice just to placate Western benefactors.

Pegging the Ukrainian offensive to the upcoming NATO exercise in June suggests the United States and NATO are hoping for a repeat of last year’s NATO exercise, which was used as cover to plant explosives on the Nordstream Pipeline. The Western leaders, both political and military, apparently never learned the popular refrain from World War II — “Loose lips sink ships.” “Loose lips” also lead to the massive destruction of Ukrainian forces, tanks, artillery and planes.

The madness displayed by Ukraine and the United States reminds me of this scene from Smiley’s People (a terrific BBC production). The head of British Intelligence asks George Smiley, “It isn’t some wicked Bolshi plot is it?”

Nope. It is sheer desperation. I find it hard to believe that Russia is lulled into a state of complacency or is consumed by premature celebration of certain victory. Russia’s continued onslaught of aerial bombs and missile strikes across Ukraine belies the claim that Russia is brimming with over confidence.

Western leaders do not grasp the fact that Ukraine, despite a numerical advantage, failed to take control of the Donbass during the eight year civil war that started in 2014. Russia did not deploy its troops, tanks and artillery to that conflict until it launched the Special Military Operation (SMO) in February 2022. If Ukraine could not dispatch the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts during the last nine years, how are they expected to pull off a battlefield victory when the majority of Ukraine’s best soldiers have been killed and wounded during the course of Russia’s SMO?