Johnson almost certainly has votes to formalize Biden impeachment inquiry

House Republicans almost certainly have the votes needed to formally launch an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden this week.

Nearly all GOP members either plan to or lean towards supporting a vote to formalize their investigation into the Democratic president and his family’s business dealings, according to a POLITICO whip count, while all House Democrats are expected to unanimously oppose.

It was a tricky whip operation for Speaker Mike Johnson, who can only afford to lose three GOP votes assuming full House attendance. The Louisiana Republican, top investigators and his leadership team worked to win over Republicans in battleground districts who for months had been loath to support such a vote but, so far, only one GOP lawmaker seems likely to oppose the resolution to greenlight the inquiry on Wednesday.

Of course, the inquiry itself has actually been going on for months. And while Republicans have poked holes in the president’s previous statements, they haven’t found direct evidence that Joe Biden took actions as vice president or president to benefit his family’s business deals. But a new argument — which has swayed many centrists — has cropped up for formalizing the inquiry: The GOP needs such a vote to give more legal weight to their subpoenas and demands for records.

Some centrists pointed to a variety of factors that have shifted their thinking:

• They believe investigators have found enough evidentiary string that is worth following.
• They note the White House issued a letter arguing GOP subpoenas for documents and interviews are invalid without a vote (based on a Trump-era opinion). 
• Some acknowledge that they didn’t want to be the members blocking the GOP from taking this step. 

“When the White House attorneys basically said they were no longer going to cooperate with us, unless we actually raised our status, what did they think was going to happen?” said Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), who represents a district Biden won in 2020, adding that he would have been “more contemplative” about his vote if they had not been so “in your face” with the letter.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), another battleground Republican, added that he was previously a “no” vote but “the White House gives us no other option.”

The White House has defended its position, arguing it has cooperated with a tranche of Republicans’ document and interview requests. But Biden administration officials also argued, in a recent letter to GOP investigators last month, that the inquiry lacked legitimacy without a vote — basing that on a Justice Department memo from the Trump years. At the time, the memo was pushing back on then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against Trump without initially holding a vote for it.

It wasn’t just Biden-district Republicans who were on the fence as recently as last week.

Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), who hadn’t made a decision as of last week, said Tuesday that he would support formalizing the inquiry and that it would allow Republicans to make “intelligent decisions” about any next steps.

“This allows the process to continue to move forward — allows evidence one way or another,” he said.

And the White House’s stance appears to have frustrated even the House Republican viewed as most likely to oppose the inquiry resolution: Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.).

“It’s nonsense. It’s not a valid reason,” he said on Tuesday about the White House letter, while adding that he is still a “lean no” in terms of formalizing the probe.

“So on one hand I’m frustrated,” added the retiring Colorado gadfly. “But on the other hand I still don’t see evidence that links Joe Biden to Hunter Biden.”