3 things that will influence Johnson on spending and border

There’s no doubt Speaker Mike Johnson has a rough road ahead in 2024. He’s got two shutdown deadlines, fraught border negotiations and building pressure to impeach President Joe Biden.

In the midst of all that, he’s got an incredibly thin majority and he has to keep his right flank happy — never an easy task in split government. He’s been speaker for about two and a half months, and in that time we’ve learned a few things about him that will affect the legislative pileup:

1. He doesn’t have a McCarthy-style inner circle.

Unlike his predecessor, Johnson isn’t surrounded by his closest friends acting as informal advisers. That has pros and cons: Those members helped Kevin McCarthy navigate the historically thin majority, but it further fueled distrust within GOP leadership.

Johnson leans on members of House leadership far more, a welcome change for some Republicans who appreciate the top-down communication style. He does have some allies and mentors that he trusts for advice at various times, including Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), and Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) as well as Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), according to a Republican close to Johnson.

At this point, Johnson doesn’t appear to have the deep support McCarthy had that allowed him to persevere through 15 ballots. While McCarthy’s strategy obviously had its problems, Johnson will need some sort of loyal backing if he wants to successfully navigate tricky political terrain.

His press strategy critically differs from McCarthy, too. As a rank-and-file member, Johnson was extremely accessible to reporters. As speaker, he’s been far more reserved — avoiding hallway questions and finding roundabout ways to get onto the House floor to avoid reporters. It’s fueled a perception that Johnson is weary of answering questions, whereas McCarthy often dealt with journalists head on. However, Johnson has rejoined the weekly leadership pressers that McCarthy opted to skip.

2. He can’t keep punting.

Some Republicans have criticized Johnson over his willingness to punt on polarizing issues rather than call a tough play. And they don’t have a lot of patience left.

That approach was most on display during the spy powers fight last month, when Johnson tried to have members duke it out on the floor to decide which FISA bill would move forward rather than make the decision himself. That backfired: He was forced to withdraw the legislation and both conservatives and centrists complained that it was his job to pick which bill was better.

But conservatives weren’t happy with the results of Johnson wading into the toplines spending deal either. Congressional leaders announced Sunday they had an agreement on overall funding levels — which are effectively the same numbers included in the debt ceiling deal former Speaker Kevin McCarthy had negotiated — prompting swift backlash from the right flank.

That highlights another problem conservatives have with Johnson (and most speakers, at one point or another): They feel he’s too willing to make deals with Democrats. It didn’t help Johnson that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was doing a victory lap earlier today, bragging that not a “nickel” was cut.

All that means Johnson is a little boxed in. Conservatives will criticize any deal he reaches with Democrats, something he has to do in split government. But his conference broadly argues he can no longer try to lead from behind. Republicans want him to demonstrate — through spending, the border and impeachment — that he can pick a side when he has to, and stick to it.

3.  He’s approaching politically volatile issues, like the border, very carefully.

While Johnson has repeatedly demanded more border security and made it a central issue for the party for the November election, he’s shown that he won’t stick his neck out on it as far as some lawmakers want — at least not yet.

He’ll call for conservative border priorities, but he’s purposely stopped short of threatening a shutdown over it, the type of hardball tactics that some conservatives are demanding. At the same time, Johnson hasn’t taken part in the bipartisan Senate negotiations, despite explicit calls from the Biden administration for him to do so. So far, it seems like he’s waiting to weigh in further until those negotiators announce a deal.

That’s far from certain, which may be a part of Johnson’s calculus. But if they do, the speaker may face pointed questions from his conference if he doesn’t push hard enough for their conservative H.R. 2 bill, which is considered a non-starter in the Senate.